The Oil Drum | The End of Fossil Energy

The Oil Drum | The End of Fossil Energy

A couple of months ago, I received an e-mail from John Howe, author of the book The End of Fossil Energy and the Last Chance for Survival. He indicated his concern that the public is not getting the message on Peak Oil, and he asked if I would be interested in receiving a copy of his book and helping him post some of his ideas to TOD. I accepted his gracious offer, and I received his book in the mail a few days later. A couple of weeks later, I read the book on a flight to San Francisco.

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There is something in the book for just about everyone, but I would especially recommend it as an introduction to the topic of Peak Oil. I told John I would post an essay here in order to help get his ideas out there. He has a 20-page White Paper that you can download here. I will post some excerpts from his White Paper below, but first I wanted to make a few observations.

There were a couple of things that really impressed me about John. First, he has laid out a plan for transitioning to a sustainable energy future. He calls this plan "The Five Percent Plan to Energy Sustainability", and he covers the details in Chapter 5. By actually committing a plan to writing, John is probably ahead of the vast majority of us in this debate. Most of us have various ideas for what we need to do to achieve sustainability, but I am sure that few of us have put as much thought into it as John has.

The other thing that really impressed me is that John practices what he preaches. He has built three completely solar-powered vehicles, including a 1962 MG Midget and a tractor he uses on his farm. He goes over some of the technical details in one of the appendices of the book. The experience John is gaining with his solar-powered vehicles can be a valuable asset to the world if we will learn from him. If the world had more John Howes out there, I wouldn't be nearly as concerned about the challenges facing us.

Delusions That Will Not Save Us

(But waste valuable time and dollars while we chase them down)

With the onset of peak oil and higher energy prices, there is a flurry of new and, in many cases, revived old panaceas. Some have a touch of legitimacy. Some are pure snake oil, some are only a way to profit either from selling books or from ill-directed research grants and tax incentives. Not necessarily in order:

• Hydrogen-Hype: Now quieting down. Most people understand it has to come from fossil fuels, or if from renewables, is a terribly inefficient way to use precious non-fossil-sourced electricity. In addition, it is very dangerous and technically difficult to handle and store in compressed or cryogenic form.
• Biofuels (exclusive of wood): Sunlight is very dilute and sporadic. Expecting the annual solar energy to replace the millions of years of concentrated solar energy in fossil fuels is impossible. As the fossil fuel base (nitrogen fertilizer, diesel fuel, irrigation- energy, etc.) for our food supply winds down, we will need ALL the biomass energy we can find just to feed ourselves. Also, biofuel production (esp. ethanol from corn) requires about as much fossil energy input as the resultant energy yield. The energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) is too close to unity to be worthwhile. Finally the intensive monoculture of crop land is not sustainable.
• Wood: Somewhere between dilute annual sunlight-energy and concentrated fossil fuels is wonderful wood. But, it takes 50 to 100 years to grow a reasonable tree. Harvest at a quicker rate only depletes the forest, soils, and ecological balance. This signals the end of a civilization and is happening the world over and exacerbated; by increasing population and fossil-fuel powered harvesting equipment.
• There's Plenty Left: We are now using about 6 barrels of oil (at one billion barrels, worldwide, every 12 days) for every single new barrel discovered. Natural gas is not far behind and can't be shipped overseas except as liquid natural gas (LNG). Coal and tar sands are more plentiful but contribute heavily to eco devastation and will soon approach an EROEI of unity, especially as oil runs down and the harder-to-reach, dirtier sources are mined.
• Efficiency Will Save Us: Only if we concurrently reduce consumption (reverse growth and population). In most cases improved efficiency increases consumption due to increased value and numbers of consumers. ("Jevon's Paradox") In the long run, we must survive with no fossil energy at all.
• Other Sources: Nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar, and wind are all legitimate. But, except for solar and wind, all are limited by site availability or in the case of nuclear, finite fuel and waste problems. Total energy will be much less without fossil-fuels.
• "Pie in the Sky": Abiotic oil, nuclear fusion, methyl hydrates, shale oil, perpetual motion machines, etc. None are proved.

Non-fossil Energy Sources

The Three fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas) represent a non-renewable "bank account" being drawn down at an annual rate leading to complete depletion or the point of negative energy return on investment (EROEI) in less than one lifetime. This prediction can be challenged but more optimism will, in no way, change the obvious threat of the "Triple-Crisis." New unexpected discoveries might provide extra time and a better chance to effect a transition protocol to less population and a much lower-energy future. However, the desperate consumption of additional fossil fuels will only exacerbate the global warming component. A sustainable future can only come from sustainable, clean energy.

Nuclear

The best bet for continued, clean electricity on a large scale. But, sources of finite, fissionable uranium must be found and ultimately mined without cheap fossil energy. This scenario also assumes that acceptable waste disposal and protection from terrorism can be assured. Also, nuclear, like all other non-fossil energy sources except biofuels, produces only direct electricity. No matter what energy sources we use we will need a complete rethinking of our transportation system.

Hydro

Limited to acceptable sites nearly all of which have been used. Global warming has reduced water flow and electrical output in the last decade. Considerable fossil energy is required to replace dams, which ultimately fill with silt. Reversible pumped hydro at 85% efficiency (as well as nuclear) can be used to smooth the sporadic output of solar and wind.

Biofuels

Only for absolutely essential needs as liquid fuels, lubricants, etc. and with full understanding of the required energy input and the deleterious effect on crop land and food supply. See pages 7 and 12 for more details. Waste products will decline as a source of fuel because the original energy sources are finite and depleting.

Geothermal, Tidal, Wave, etc.

All are site specific and cannot be scaled up to be of importance.

Wind

A true, clean source that can be scaled up extensively especially while fossil fuels are still available for manufacture and installation. Sporadic electrical output could be smoothed by working in concert with solar PV and other available sources.

Solar PV (photovoltaic)

The best modern technology providing direct electricity on a local or centralized basis. Very dilute and sporadic but infinitely scalable and especially applicable to residential use as well as direct solar-powered tractors and cars. In all cases, the weak output needs to be coupled with battery storage and/or other sources. This is our best bet for a long, clean future including agricultural power and transportation. Small urban and suburban farms could use approximately 100 volt tractors with integral solar-panel arrays and large battery-packs. Huge commercial farms might better use a large portable separate array of 4 to 8 kilowatts peak power (300 to 600 square feet). With a 200 ft. #8 cable, this concept would allow working up to 3 acres almost on a one to one energy basis as long as there is direct sunlight. The portable central array could be moved to a new location or brought to the farm buildings in off-season. The high cost and availability of PV will require a 50 year scale-up from present minuscule levels. We need massive investment in solar PV and lead/acid battery recycling facilities.